🐎 The proof

How accurate is the model?

Racing runs on opaque tips and gut feel. We do the opposite: we publish a win chance for every runner, then check it against thousands of real results. As of 2026-07-28 the model is NO LONGER anchored to the de-vigged market — the win chance is our own ability model. It has not been re-validated since, and the last walk-forward test of that model scored it WORSE than the market, so the figures below describe the previous anchored model and are provisional. We claim no edge over the market.

Model accuracy & probability calibration only — not a betting record, ROI or units. 18+ (21+ where required).
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The Paddock King is for entertainment and information only. 18+ (21+ where required). Please gamble responsibly — BeGambleAware.org. Our probabilities are estimates, not guarantees; markets move and edges erode. See the model accuracy →